Probalist Labs

Touch the math.

Short, free, no-signup tools to test the statistics behind the indicators. Drag the inputs and watch the numbers move — because a claim you can check beats a claim you have to believe.

Win-rate confidence · Live

Edge or noise?

A 75% win rate on 12 trades tells you almost nothing. Drag the wins and losses and watch how much — or how little — your sample can actually prove.

Open lab →
Variance & streaks · Live

How long a losing streak is normal?

Even a real, winning edge goes cold for stretches. Set your edge, run a trader, and watch how many losses in a row happen by pure chance — before you blame the system.

Open lab →
Volatility cones · Soon

How far can it travel?

Drag drift and volatility and watch a Monte-Carlo cone of where price could land — and why the tails are fatter than the textbook says.

Monte-Carlo expected move
Conditional win-rate · Soon

Does the regime matter?

Split the same signal by trend vs chop and see the win-rate move — the difference between a tool that works everywhere and one that only works sometimes.

Conditional probability
Multiple testing · Soon

The overfitting trap

Try enough settings and one always looks brilliant. Watch a "great" backtest appear from pure noise as you crank up the number of tries.

Deflated Sharpe
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